Showing posts with label ages. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ages. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

How Demographics are Going to Change Everything


Demographics are the art and the science of statistics about population. Before you immediately assume they are boring and irrelevant, read one more paragraph.

In the late 1990’s, the U.S. economy had ten new working-age taxpayers to help support each newly retiring senior. That’s ten to one. (10:1) But in 2012, for the first time in our country’s entire history, we have more newly retiring seniors than we have new working-age population! (I know it is unpopular, but we have aborted 40 millions potential workers, too).

It gets worse. Much worse. By 2022, there may well be only one new working-age citizen for ten new senior citizens. (1:10). It is a total reversal of the system, as we know it.

Understand, that all of Social Security, taxes and even the stock markets are based on the idea that new workers will be funding those that have retired. After all, if the seniors sell their stocks to live, who will buy them when ten sell and only one worker is buying?

How will Social Security survive with only one worker’s taxes trying to support ten retirees? Unless it changes, it cannot. We live a lot longer now, too. In 1950, most people expected to live only five to eight more years after reaching age 65. Currently, that has doubled to about fifteen years, and it’s climbing.

With this kind of increase in the sheer numbers of retirees, and with retirees living twice as long as they ever have, cuts will have to be made and they will be unpopular. It might just be political suicide to touch this electrified “third rail” of politics.
Someone--sooner or later--will have to deal with this issue. As for me, I do not think that Social Security can survive, as we know it. The problem is in the demographics.

Thursday, December 1, 2011

WHY WE WILL LOOK SILLY

WHY WE WILL LOOK SILLY

Yesterday’s cutting edge technology, like the once-cool Sony Walkman, looks silly to today’s children who use iPods. Much of current technology will look silly to your future grandchildren, according to Shane Richmond and Ian Douglas who write for UK’s Telegraph newspaper. What follows are a few of the things that they and others predict will look silly to future generations. Actually, I think they are right.

TV schedules: That week-long wait for your favorite TV show was a familiar feature of my childhood. Remember cartoons on Saturday mornings? Now, TV is transforming into a demand-driven service. Watch whatever, whenever you want.

Recipe books: In the house of the future, your fridge will know exactly what food items it contains, and what meals you can make with those ingredients, while video panels embedded within the work surfaces will guide you through every stage of the cooking process.

Laptops: "I used to have to carry a separate bag for my computer," you'll find yourself explaining to some youngster as he unfolds his e-paper, touchscreen laptop, connects it to his cloud storage database and starts watching a film.

Cordless home phones: The phone used to be attached to the wall by a cable and, for some unknown reason, it would probably be in the hall, forcing you to sit on the stairs while you chatted. Then came the cordless phone. Isn't it great to be able to walk around the house while you're on the phone? Your kids already wonder why phones were ever “attached” to homes by a curly cord.

Glasses: Wearing glasses to correct vision problems is still a social norm but with laser eye surgery and contact lenses, it's not hard to imagine a point in the near future when they become obsolete. However, the concept of hanging lenses in front of your face has been around for centuries and is still pretty useful. Sunglasses will be around for a while and your children may start wearing glasses to take advantage of augmented reality services, for example for navigation.

Video and Audio tape: Tape is already a thing of the past in most homes. There's no need to remember to rewind a rental video before you return it. The language remains, however, and your children may wonder why you talk about "taping" a TV show when what you're actually doing is saving it to a hard drive on a Digital Video Recorder (DVR).

Photo processing: The idea that you'd have to shoot a whole roll of film holding, if you are lucky, 36 pictures, before you can see whether any of them were any good, sounds odd to the digital camera generation. Stranger still is the idea of taking your film to the drugstore - after snapping three pointless shots of your cat to finish the film - and then waiting an hour while they processed them.

Watches: You spend most of your time sitting in front of a computer that shows the time in the corner of the screen. When you're at home you can see the time on your DVD player and your oven. And when you're out and about you're carrying a mobile phone that displays the time. Admit it, your watch is just a piece of jewelry now, isn't it?

Keyboards: Many touchscreen devices still make a clicking noise when you type on them but there's no real reason to. Modern keyboards are very quiet - nothing like the thump of old typewriters or the clacking of keyboards from the 80s. But the keyboard itself may not last much longer. They take up space, adding to the bulk of portable devices, and they suffer from being fixed: a British keyboard cannot transform into a Russian one but a touchscreen can. Though touchscreens take some getting used to for those who have learned keyboards it's unlikely that those who grow up with them will have the same problem.

CDs, DVDs and Minidiscs: Physical media are constantly being replaced. The path from records to eight track cartridges to cassettes to CDs to minidiscs to MP3 players is littered with laser discs, digital audiotapes and HD-DVDs. They’re replaced now by wireless downloads to your watching or listening device. Your CD collection is already as outdated as your grandfather's library of Vinyl LP Albums!

Pagers: It required someone to call a number so that a message can be sent to you, to ask you to call them back - is nonsense. Don't even try to explain it to your children.

The map and compass: The time of the paper map and physical compass has already passed. Having a map in a device, such as a mobile phone, means that it can be updated when necessary and can be made interactive.

Black & white film and TV: The world of old used to be in black and white, at least that's how it appears to children.

Letters: The art of letter writing is being killed by the internet. However, it's not just the art, but the technology of letters that has been usurped. The idea of writing something, putting it in the mail, waiting for it to arrive and then waiting even longer for a reply seems bizarre in our world of always-on communications. Plane tickets, bank statements and bills are already paperless for most people.

Fax machines: Every now and again a piece of paper can't be emailed to someone and, as discussed above, the mail is just too slow. So we have to dust off the fax machine in the corner. This technology dates back to the 1970s.

Email: As we've seen already, email has replaced letters and the fax machine. But don't think being email-friendly means you can escape the mockery of your juniors. Teenagers these days eschew email in favor of instant messenger for direct communication and prefer social networks for longer messages.

Gas-powered vehicles: Our children may be slightly perplexed to hear that we used to pump flammable liquid into our cars to keep them running. They’ll be plugging theirs in instead.

Phone booths: Yes kids, we left phones lying around the country, in giant glass boxes with sticking doors that pinched your fingers. Whenever someone wanted to use one of these phones they had to pay, which meant needing to have change on you. Good luck finding a phone booth anywhere today. (Where would Superman change now?) In the future, life long phone numbers will soon be assigned to find you wherever, whenever, forever.

Multiple remote controls: We used to have to walk across the room to change the channel on the television that had only three channels anyway. Now we have four remotes. In future, your mobile phone will probably double as a remote for whatever it is you're trying to operate.

Floppy discs: From the 1969 eight-inch format, to the mid-1990s 3.5 inch plastic case, your children will be amazed to learn that at their best, they held up to 240MB. (A few songs’ worth on their iPod).

Telephone directories: We printed every phone number into a huge book, which we delivered to every household in the country! Seriously! (Now, few have home numbers anyway.)

Dial-up internet access: It will seem odd to future generations that we used to turn our internet access on --during which you couldn't use your phone– and be charged by the minute for access.

Computers in boxes: As components get smaller still and more computing power is transferred to the cloud, cutting the need for local resources, the need for a box will be eliminated altogether.

Visiting the supermarket: By the time your children are grown up, all of those boring products will be ordered online and delivered to save you the trouble of going to the shop and getting them.

‘Owning’ music, books and film: Once data can be stored in the cloud and accessed by your device whenever you need it, the idea of 'owning' something starts to seem strange. Your children won't collect albums, they'll have every album ever made at their fingertips all the time.

Cords and cables: Wireless data transfer, battery-powered devices and cordless charging mats will make the spaghetti of wires in every office as obsolete as going into or gas station to pay for gas.

TVs and radios that need tuning: "Stay tuned" lost its original meaning and your children will never guess that you used to turn a tiny dial like a safe cracker in an effort to get your TV tuned to the correct channel.

Disposable batteries: Mobile phones, laptops and MP3 players mostly use rechargeable batteries. The idea that you used to have to throw batteries away and then go and buy some new ones already seems quite strange.

Fillings in teeth: It's good to know that in the near future all that business with injections, numb mouths and metal amalgams will be over and old, damaged teeth will be removed and replaced with shiny news ones, grown from stem cells to order. The last generation to know the special fear that comes with the rising whine of the drill is already brushing its own teeth.

Road signs: Universal Satellite-navigation will mean they’ll be tearing down those hulking sheets of metal at the side of the road and insisting that your car informs you that it's five miles to town or that road works will be disrupting traffic until July 2035. Those same devices will also keep an eye on your speed and report your movements to the traffic police.

Checks: You probably laugh at these already, and your children will be laughing right along with you. Imagine, a booklet of pre-printed IOUs that you use instead of money. You hand out details that would allow the recipient to set up direct debits on your account with every payment. They are secured only by your signature, which the person processing the check has no chance of recognizing. Mobile phones will be swiped for payment at checkout (to get your right hand used to that motion?)



Mr. Peel, who is feeling older everyday, is a local attorney seeking justice for those hurt in motor vehicle accidents, work related injuries, medical malpractice, nursing home and trucking cases. Mr. Peel often addresses churches and clubs and can be contacted through www.PeelLawFirm.com, wherein other articles can also be found.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

BOOMERS HAVE REGRETS

BABY BOOMERS HAVE SOME REGRETS

A recent article by Rebecca D'Angelo in USA TODAY found that there are some common regrets among those born between 1946 and 1964.

This is what they wished they had known earlier:

•The stock market can go down as well as up.

•Your home equity line should not be used as a personal ATM.

•Youth doesn't last forever, but moving more, and eating less can delay old age. Comments like, "Why didn't I start with the sunscreen sooner so I wouldn't be so wrinkled?” as well as consternation over bulging waistlines, weight-related illness or ailments, and decreased physical capabilities are common.

•Our parents weren't blowing smoke when they said "Live within your means" and "Save for a rainy day." Now "they're afraid they'll outlive their money" because they didn't plan and save enough and certainly didn't predict the economy's meltdown.

In general their comments might be summarized as: “A little less ice cream and a lot more saving.”

If they live another 30 or 40 years, they will find longevity brings challenges. Some folks are realizing that 35 years of work cannot easily support 35 years of retirement.

It is not as if Baby Boomers did not have great role models. The generation that fought World War 2 has often been called the “Greatest Generation.” I am sure that the Depression era that preceded World War 2 did more good than harm to the character of Americans. It seems that the further we have gotten from those awful financial times, the more spoiled and selfish we have become.

Is there anyone now who will rise up and claim that Generation X, Generation Y or whatever we have now, will be the greatest generation? I certainly can’t imagine it.

But, the folks in the mid 1920’s never thought they would see a full out stock market crash in 1929, ushering in the worse Depression in American History. It is fairly well accepted that there were five causes or aggravations of the Great Depression.

1. Stock Market Crash of 1929: One of the major causes that led to the Great Depression.

2. Runs on Bank as Banks Failed: Over 9,000 banks failed and deposits were uninsured, so the money was just gone. You can recall a run on the banks in the classic Christmas movie, “It’s a Wonderful Life.”

3. Spending and Jobs Dried Up: Lack of money and fear kept many from purchasing items, which led to a reduction in the workforce. Foreclosures and repossessions followed. The unemployment rate rose above 25%, and that was likely not even accurate due to the conditions of that day. In many places it was much higher. My Granddaddy used to say, “There just wasn’t no money back then.”

4. American Economic Policy: Desperate for anything that would help, the government tried the Smoot-Hawley Tariff in 1930 to help protect American companies by charging high tariffs on imports. Trade stagnated further.

5. Dustbowl: The Mississippi Valley’s epic drought in 1930 caused many to have sell their farms. This was the topic of John Steinbeck's “The Grapes of Wrath.”

Today, we may be looking at similar conditions. Rising unemployment, stifled spending, a lack of production, foreclosures, less credit availability, rising food and gas prices and a staggering and growing national debt. If a natural disaster, a terrorism cyber attack or other unforeseen tragedy occurs, that may be all it takes to begin building a couple of truly great generations.

Mr. Peel may be available to address your civic club or church, please contact his office at www.PeelLawFirm.com

Thursday, June 3, 2010

LONG AGES LONG AGO

Evolution v. Creation part ____ of 12

LONG AGES, LONG AGO

“The days of our lives are seventy years; and if by reason of strength they are eighty years, yet their boast is only labor and sorrow; for it is soon cut off, and we fly away.” ~Psalm 90:10

According to Scripture, Methuselah lived to be a staggering 969 years old. Many others in his time had children when they were several hundred years old. This ancient longevity is one of the allegedly “far-fetched” claims of Biblical creationists.

But, is it really that unlikely? Babylonians, Greeks, Romans, Indians, Sumerians, Chinese and other cultures talk of much longer ancient life spans in ancient times, as well. Many tales explain that a great flood shortened these spans. If this happened just as the Bible explains, then these stories would be preserved in common memory and tradition all over the world. This is precisely what we find. What does Scripture actually teach about ancient longevity.

God created Adam and Eve in a perfect state; uncorrupted by sin, sickness and physical death. It has been suggested that they had the ability to live forever here on Earth. They were certainly provided food, water and all they would have needed in the Garden of Eden.

He also provided them only one rule. (While religions of today maybe criticized by some as having too many rules, originally there was just one.) God warned them not to eat from the Tree of the Knowledge of Good and Evil. The consequences were also given: they and their descendants would die (Genesis 2:16–17).

With Satan’s diabolical help, our great-great-great (and so on) grandparents rebelled and they changed as a result (Genesis 3). Spiritual death happened immediately, with illness and eventual physical death to follow. Their own firstborn child, Cain, became the world’s first murderer. One of their other children became the first victim. The wages of their sin was, indeed death--both physical and spiritual. This is the bad news, and John 3:16 contains the good news (“gospel” in Greek).

However, sin’s effects on Adam limited his life span to 930 years. The ten patriarchs (excluding Enoch) who preceded the Great Flood lived an average of 912 years! Exceedingly long, when compared to our current spans--but dreadfully short, compared to forever.

Amazingly, for some 1,500 years after creation, most men either could have actually talked to the first man, Adam, or personally knew someone who did! Adam’s own grandsons could have babysat young Noah!

Ages of the Patriarchs from Adam to Noah (Pre – Flood)

Patriarch Age Bible Reference

1 Adam 930 Genesis 5:4

2 Seth 912 Genesis 5:8

3 Enosh 905 Genesis 5:11

4 Cainan 910 Genesis 5:14

5 Mahalalel 895 Genesis 5:17

6 Jared 962 Genesis 5:20

7 Enoch 365 (did not die of old age) see Genesis 5:23

8 Methuselah 969 Genesis 5:27

9 Lamech 777 Genesis 5:31

10 Noah 950 Genesis 9:29

During the 1,000 years following the Flood, however, the Bible records a progressive decline in life span, from Noah who lived to be 950 years old until Abraham at 175. Since then, a few make it to around 120, but most die closer to half of that.

Ages of the Patriarchs after Noah to Abraham (Post – Flood)

Patriarch Age Bible Reference

11 Shem 600 Genesis 11:10–11

12 Arphaxad 438 Genesis 11:12–13

13 Shelah 433 Genesis 11:14–15

14 Eber 464 Genesis 11:16–17

15 Peleg 239 Genesis 11:18–19

16 Reu 239 Genesis 11:20–21

17 Serug 230 Genesis 11:22–23

18 Nahor 148 Genesis 11:24–25

19 Terah 205 Genesis 11:32

20 Abraham 175 Genesis 25:7

As a lawyer, I sometimes use our Tennessee State Law to set out the average life span. Not surprisingly, our current average life expectancy remains between 70 and 80 years. The veracity of the Bible is further confirmed by this fact, even though Psalm 90 was written over 3,000 years ago.

So, what changed so permanently at the Flood? Tropical foliage and a humid environment gave way to an ice age, which led eventually to what we see today. The land mass separated and concentrated our flawed DNA in groups which have recognizable characteristics.

What has not changed is more remarkable. We do not have to teach our children to lie, cheat and steal. Their sin nature takes care of that. We have to teach them to obey and choose the right path. We must encourage them to seek and to find God through the Way, His Son, Jesus.

Jesus, in the Book of John, told us He came into the world to testify to the Truth. The universality of death and suffering should push us towards Him, not away. We know at every funeral that death is an intruder into this world, whether at 9, 90, or 900 years of age. Jesus conquered death by rising from the dead. (see Isaiah 25:8; Psalm 49:14–15; 1 John 5:13). Turn to Him, so that one day you can ask Methuselah what it felt like to live for 969 years.

All prior articles in this series can be found by searching my blog at DavidBPeel.Blogspot.com.